Turkey, Israel: Quo vadimus?

Turkish-Israeli relations are likely to hit rock bottom with the steps that Ankara is planning to take this week, breaking the record of 1980.
In 1980, just two weeks before the military coup on Sept. 12, Turkey downgraded its diplomatic relations with Israel in protest at Israel’s annexation of east Jerusalem and then transferring its capital to the ancient city.
It took 12 years for the two countries’ relations to recover. The rhetoric was always there that Turkey and Israel were two Western-oriented democracies in the region and should support each other.
Turkey had been the first country with a
Muslim population to recognize the state of Israel when it was established in 1948. Overtly and covertly, Israel and the international pro-Israeli lobby had provided – at that time – much needed financial, technical and political support for Turkey, whose recognition had been invaluable in breaking the psychological-political barriers in their neighborhood. That was one of the factors, almost as important as sending troops to the Korean War in 1950, in Turkey’s admittance to the Western defense organization NATO, together with its eastern Mediterranean rival, Greece.
The relations were back on track after 1992, yet the track has always been a bumpy one; the Palestinian problem has always been a hindrance to further cooperation between the two countries.
Turkish governments have always asked Israel to be more respectful of the rights of the Palestinian people and reacted – more effectively than many Arab countries and even the Arab League – especially when Palestinian civilians were under fire.
This is not something particular to a political party or ideology in Turkey. For example, in April 2002 social democratic Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit had claimed that Israeli army attacks on Palestinian civilians resembled “genocide.” The word was too heavy to use, so Ecevit then corrected it to “tragedy” following reactions, and everything was back on track once again when Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, took power a few months later.
But it started to go sour gradually from 2005 on when Israeli operations against Hamas-led Gaza began to escalate. There was the Lebanon intervention in 2006, more Gaza in the meantime, the “One minute” affair in 2009 where Israeli President Shimon Perez was grilled by Erdoğan and then the flotilla affair, in which nine Turks were killed on board the Mavi Marmara ship as they were trying to carry aid to Gaza and break the Israeli blockade there.
The diplomatic relations will be downgraded to their lowest possible level with the steps to be taken today; more to the point, Turkish Navy boats are likely to get orders Wednesday to patrol more “visibly” and “aggressively” in the international waters of the Mediterranean – most probably closer to Israeli waters. The reason is that Turkey wants an apology and compensation for the loss of civilian lives from Israel, who has refused to deliver on such a request, claiming that the raid was self-defense.
The relations are not going to get any better with the current stances of the governments. Furthermore, with the current stances – and please do not forget about Syria – there is likely to be a greater escalation of the tension in the eastern Mediterranean region in the coming weeks.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com