Bloomberg : 91% οι πιθανότητες χρεωκοπίας της Ελλάδος.

Τα Credit-default swaps (CDS) του ελληνικού χρέους ξεπέρασαν τις 3000 μονάδες, φθάνοντας σε ύψος – ρεκόρ (3045). Με δεδομένη την κατάσταση αυτή το Bloomberg θεωρεί ότι οι πιθανότητες χρεωκοπίας της Ελλάδος φθάνουν το 91%.
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Greek Credit Swaps Surge to Record, Signal 91% Chance of Default

September 08, 2011, 10:26 AM EDT

By Abigail Moses

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt surged to a record, signaling there’s a 91 percent probability the nation won’t meet debt commitments, after its economy shrank more than previously reported.
Five-year contracts on the country’s sovereign
bonds jumped 240 basis points to a record 3,045 basis points, according to CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market.
Gross domestic product shrank 7.3 percent from a year earlier after declining 8.1 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter, the Hellenic Statistical Authority said. Greece’s financial situation is “on a knife’s edge,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers last night, the parliament’s HIB bulletin said.
“It’s a combination of Greece continuing to disappoint and probably a growing realization among politicians that they’re probably throwing good money after bad,” said Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. “They’ve finally woken up to the fact that they’re not going to get this money back.”
The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments rose 1.5 basis points to 321.5. The gauge is approaching the record close of 327 basis points on Sept. 6.
Greece’s economy has been hurt by spending cuts and tax increases introduced as a condition for a 110 billion-euro ($155 billion) European Union-led bailout last year, which have damped consumer demand. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos this week said the government will accelerate further austerity measures to ensure continued support after EU officials said payment of a sixth tranche of bailout loans will be withheld unless Greece meets its deficit targets.
A basis point on a credit-default swap protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year. Swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements.